The Price Prediction feature allows users to make predictions about stock prices. You can predict where a stock will be at a specific target date, indicating whether you're bullish (expecting price to rise) or bearish (expecting price to fall).
Table of Contents
Understanding Price Predictions
Key Components
| Component | Description |
|---|---|
| Ticker | The stock symbol you're predicting |
| Target Date | When your prediction expires |
| Initial Price | Stock price when prediction was made |
| Target Price | Your predicted price |
| Actual/Final Price | Current market price (or final price if expired) |
| Partial/Final Result | How accurate your prediction is |
Prediction Accuracy Color Coding
The result is color-coded based on the absolute percentage difference between the actual price and your target price. This helps you quickly identify how accurate your predictions are.
Color Scale
| Range | Rating | Description | Indicator |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5% | Excellent | Very accurate prediction | 🟢 |
| 5-7% | Good | Reasonably accurate prediction | 🟡 |
| 7-10% | Fair | Moderate accuracy | 🟠|
| >10% | Poor | Significant deviation from target | 🔴 |
Note: The color coding is based on the absolute percentage difference. This means that -5% and +5% are treated the same and both receive a green color if within the excellent range.
Examples
Excellent Prediction
- Target: $100
- Actual: $103
- Result: +$3 (3.00%)
Good Prediction
- Target: $100
- Actual: $106
- Result: +$6 (6.00%)
Fair Prediction
- Target: $100
- Actual: $109
- Result: +$9 (9.00%)
Poor Prediction
- Target: $100
- Actual: $85
- Result: -$15 (15.00%)
UserScore - How Your Prediction Score Works
Your Score
Your score measures how accurately you predict stock prices over time. It rewards both precision and consistency, with higher scores for correct predictions over longer timeframes.
How Scoring Works
Direction Matters First
- Your prediction must get the direction right (up/down)
- Wrong direction = 0 points, even if the price is close
Points Formula
Score = Days × (Precision ^ Exponent)
Where:
- Days: How far ahead you predicted
- Precision: How close your target was to the actual price (0-100%)
- Exponent: Gets smaller for longer predictions (makes them easier)
Why This Matters
| Timeframe | Requirement | Points Potential |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term (1-7 days) | Need high precision to score well | Lower maximum points |
| Long-term (30+ days) | More forgiving | Higher maximum points |
Your Accuracy Rating
Accuracy shows your average error rate across all predictions, weighted by duration:
Accuracy = 1 - (Total Weighted Error / Total Days Predicted)
Example: A 10% error on a 30-day prediction affects your accuracy more than a 10% error on a 1-day prediction.
Tips for Better Scores
- Get the direction right - Bullish or bearish correctness is mandatory
- Longer predictions = more points - But only if you're accurate
- Consistency pays off - Your score builds over time
- Close counts - Even 95% precision scores well for long-term predictions