IMF upgrades India's growth forecast amid global slowdown. The International Monetary Fund now projects India's GDP growth at 6.5% for fiscal 2026-27, up 0.1 percentage points from January estimates, even as global growth slows to 3.1% from 3.3% due to West Asia conflict. While India's relative resilience is noteworthy, policymakers must remain cautious. Global risks persist through multiple channels: energy supply shocks will drive inflation in fertilizers, chemicals, and food; wage-price spirals could force tighter monetary policy; and financial market instability could trigger capital flight. Global inflation is now projected at 4.4%, up from 3.8%. If the conflict prolongs, global growth could plummet to 2.5% or lower, creating stagflationary conditions. India's outperformance reflects lower war exposure, but New Delhi cannot afford complacency given interconnected global risks.
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