India's inflation climbing higher. April inflation reached 13-month peak of 3.5%, driven primarily by rising food costs. Food inflation accelerated to 4.2% from 3.9% in March, with further pressure expected from below-average rainfall forecasts affecting farm output. Supply disruptions from West Asia conflict have pushed commodity and freight costs higher. Weak rupee continues adding to import expenses. While still below RBI's 4% target, the upward trajectory is concerning. Fuel price hikes appear probable following government policy shifts. Unless price pressures ease significantly, the Reserve Bank of India may end its credit easing cycle and shift toward monetary tightening sooner than previously anticipated.
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