India's macroeconomic vulnerabilities are intensifying as UBS warns of potential rupee depreciation to 100 against the dollar, up from current levels around 96.

India's macroeconomic vulnerabilities are intensifying as UBS warns of potential rupee depreciation to 100 against the dollar, up from current levels around 96. The research head highlighted a looming balance of payments crisis exceeding 50 billion dollars, driven by elevated oil prices and significant capital outflows. Without intervention measures such as curbing remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme and reviving NRI deposit schemes, currency pressure will persist. GDP growth forecasts have been revised to a base case of 6.2 percent, with downside risks to 5.5 percent if geopolitical tensions prolong. Corporate earnings growth expectations have been slashed from 15 percent to below 10 percent, with further downside risks emerging.