India's crude oil import costs are set to rise by $2-3 per barrel as the country reduces Russian crude purchases under US pressure. According to analytics provider Kpler, India cannot fully replace Russian barrels without incurring significant costs from a market structure perspective. Russian crude has offered Indian refiners a valuable combination of medium sour quality, stable availability, and discounted pricing. While Venezuelan crude could partially offset rising costs, its supply is structurally constrained by production limits and logistics challenges. Kpler projects Russian crude imports into India will decline from 1-1.2 million barrels per day in February 2026 to 800,000-1 million barrels daily in March. This shift reflects growing commercial and policy frictions that will likely push Russia's share in India's crude mix to lower levels compared to 2024-2025 performance.
