American Express Upgraded to Hold as Valuation Normalizes.

American Express Upgraded to Hold as Valuation Normalizes. AXP shares have declined over 20% from recent highs amid credit quality concerns and macro headwinds from elevated oil prices and travel disruptions. Despite these pressures, the company's premium customer base and strong credit metrics with 1.3%-1.5% delinquency rates provide meaningful resilience. Management guidance for 2026 projects 9%-10% revenue growth and EPS of $16.90-$17.50, slightly below prior targets due to energy-driven risks. Spending growth is expected to decelerate to 5%-7% by the second half of 2026. The stock trades at 17.4x earnings with a capital return yield of approximately 3.7%, supported by ongoing buybacks and a recent 16% dividend increase.