Dated Brent crude signals severe market stress. The real-world oil price hit a record $144.42 per barrel this week, reflecting acute scarcity in physical supplies rather than mere geopolitical risk. Though prices retreated to $131.97 after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement, analysts warn the underlying tension persists. A significant gap has emerged between dated Brent spot prices and front-month futures, indicating tight supplies ahead. With roughly 20% of global oil flowing through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz facing continued disruption, the ceasefire remains fragile. Energy experts caution that the market may be getting ahead of itself, as shipping through this critical corridor will not normalize soon, keeping upward pressure on crude prices.
