U.

U.S. tax refunds surge in 2026. Individual tax refunds are projected to reach nearly $348 billion by June, marking a 15.2% increase from 2025 and potentially surpassing the 2022 record high. This substantial windfall is expected to provide meaningful support to consumer spending throughout the year. However, the economic picture remains complex. Consumer sentiment remains historically depressed due to persistent inflation pressures, particularly from elevated oil and gasoline prices combined with slowing job growth. The baseline forecast projects real consumer spending growth will decelerate to 2.2% in 2026, down from 2.6% in March, while real disposable income growth is expected to reach only 1.7%. The outlook for consumer activity depends heavily on future movements in oil prices and equity valuations, both of which significantly influence inflation rates and real purchasing power.