BlackRock warns investors underestimate West Asia war risks. President Rob Kapito says markets are too complacent about economic fallout from the Iran conflict, with potential growth declines of up to two percentage points and similar inflation increases even if fighting ends soon. Oil could spike to $150 per barrel due to prolonged supply chain disruptions. The S&P 500 has fallen less than 5% since the war began, while gold dropped 15% and Treasuries declined as inflation concerns mount. Apollo Global Management also warns of heightened recession risks and credit cycle threats. Consumer confidence is already weakening, and higher oil prices will further pressure household spending. Traditional defensive trades have misfired, breaking historical patterns of conflict-driven portfolio protection through short-term Treasuries and gold positions.
