Stocks surged nearly 4% last week following a US-Iran ceasefire that promised to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil flows. Crude oil dropped 14% on the geopolitical relief. However, this rally masks a troubling reality: the S&P 500 has essentially flatlined since late October, gaining virtually nothing over nearly six months despite market volatility. While geopolitical tensions captured headlines as the culprit for recent corrections, the real issue appears to be structural market concerns. Many investors have already made strategic choices to reduce technology exposure due to concentration risks in the index. The ceasefire provides temporary relief, but fundamental questions about market valuation and sector balance remain unresolved for long-term portfolio construction.
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