Oil markets show mixed signals as ceasefire hopes clash with supply realities. Brent crude futures edged up to $95.01, gaining 0.08 percent, while WTI crude rose 0.46 percent to $91.71 on Thursday. However, the divergence between futures and physical markets reveals underlying tension. Dated Brent trades around $117 per barrel, significantly higher than front-month futures, indicating tight physical supplies. An estimated 13 million barrels daily remain disrupted due to Strait of Hormuz blockade concerns. US crude exports surged to 5.23 million barrels daily, the highest since September 2025, as buyers seek alternative supplies amid West Asia disruptions. The critical risk remains peace talk breakdown between US and Iran, with their demands remaining far apart. The April 21 ceasefire expiration deadline looms as a potential catalyst for market volatility.
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