India's government has doubled the effective import tax on gold and silver from 6 percent to 15 percent in an aggressive move to defend the rupee and conserve foreign exchange reserves. The policy shift immediately rattled markets, sending MCX gold futures up 6 percent while jewellery stocks plummeted as much as 7 percent. However, analysts warn this strategy echoes the failed 2013 playbook. Market observers argue the sharp duty increase is a blunt instrument that may fuel grey market smuggling rather than achieve its intended purpose. During the previous 2012-13 crisis, similar regulatory measures failed to prevent an estimated surge in gold smuggling despite declining official import data. Experts caution that India's gold demand is structural and deeply embedded in savings culture and festive traditions across hundreds of millions of households.
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