China's economy exceeds expectations with 5% first-quarter growth, hitting the top of its full-year target range. The expansion was driven by robust exports, though March shipments faced headwinds from West Asia disruptions. However, China's domestic consumption remains sluggish, making global trade normalization critical for achieving its 2026 growth goal, the lowest target set since 1991. The key question now is whether Beijing will prioritize economic interests or geopolitical ambitions. With the US and Iran tensions affecting its strategic calculations, China's leadership may choose to pursue power shifts over near-term export expansion, potentially complicating its path to sustained growth.
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