Iran conflict intensifies pressure on Asian emerging markets. Crude prices have surged over 40% since late February, triggering extreme bearish scenarios for regional currencies and bonds. Analysts project India's rupee weakening to 100 per dollar, Indonesia's rupiah sliding to 18,000, and the Philippine peso depreciating to 65. Bond yields face significant upward pressure, with Indian benchmark yields potentially testing 2022 peaks and Philippine yields climbing toward 8%. The pain concentrates in oil-importing economies reliant on foreign capital. Rising US Treasury yields further reduce emerging-market appeal, forcing central banks to tighten policy amid deepening economic fallout. Indonesia's central bank already responded with a larger-than-expected rate hike and increased currency intervention.
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