Iran War's economic shock intensifies globally. Oil price volatility could reduce world trade by 1.75 percent by next year, according to Global Trade Alert research. The analysis shows effects take up to 19 months to materialize, with worst-case scenarios hitting Africa and the Middle East hardest, facing 8 percentage point trade declines. China could see 3 percentage point drops while the U.S. faces 1 point decline. Since the conflict began, oil has swung from the mid-80s to $126 per barrel, creating unpredictability that damages trade more than high prices alone. Maersk reports monthly costs soaring $500 million due to fuel shocks and Strait of Hormuz closures, forcing route revisions and freight rate increases. Secondary impacts include inflation and weakening demand as shipping and supply chains face sustained disruption.
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