West Asia war unlikely to trigger recession in India, but economic slowdown expected.

West Asia war unlikely to trigger recession in India, but economic slowdown expected. Bank of Baroda chief economist Madan Sabnavis projects GDP growth may decelerate to around 7% from the current 7.2-7.25% forecast. While inflation remains relatively controlled, prolonged conflict could push consumer prices up 0.5-1% if crude oil stays elevated. If the war extends six to eight months, inflation could reach 4.5-5%, with households perceiving it closer to 7%. Government fuel subsidy absorption has limited immediate impact, but extended high oil prices may force price increases. Household consumption patterns could shift as inflation erodes savings capacity. Long-term borrowing for homes and vehicles remains unaffected, with consumers potentially accelerating purchases to lock in current prices before further inflation materializes.