Oil prices surging to $90 could reshape India's economy in 2025. Crude import costs have already jumped from $150 billion to potentially $200–225 billion annually, creating a critical question: who absorbs the extra $50–75 billion burden? Right now, refiners are taking the hit, but that's unsustainable. The ripple effects are already visible. Fertilizer subsidies face pressure of one lakh crore rupees. Petrol and diesel show Rs 15–20 per litre shortfalls yet to be passed through. Once they are, inflation will rise and demand will fall, particularly in food costs through logistics. Aviation faces the most acute pressure, with thin margins already strained. The sector needs infrastructure treatment, not luxury classification, to prevent monopoly risks. Consumer demand currently holds steady at 8% urban and 5–5.
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