Economic warning signs are intensifying across the US economy.

Economic warning signs are intensifying across the US economy. Manufacturing and construction jobs are declining sharply while private fixed investment in manufacturing has plunged 18.3% over the past year. Labor markets are deteriorating, bankruptcies are rising, and consumer stress is mounting despite isolated pockets of growth. AI-driven capital spending is artificially inflating GDP figures, accounting for 39% of current growth, yet most companies report limited actual benefits from these investments. Meanwhile, government stimulus capacity is severely constrained by rising deficits and deteriorating debt-to-GDP ratios, leaving policymakers with fewer tools to intervene as conditions worsen. These converging headwinds point toward an imminent recession that could test market resilience in coming quarters.