India's GLP-1 market is experiencing a structural transformation following semaglutide patent expiry, with prices dropping 85-90% and demand surging dramatically. Ajanta Pharma and Sun Pharma are positioned to capitalize on this shift as the metabolic therapy landscape transitions from premium to volume-driven competition. The addressable market is massive, with 75-80 million obese individuals creating substantial opportunity. Over the next 3-5 years, the market could scale to INR 34-67 billion as affordability improves and prescriber adoption expands beyond endocrinologists to cardiologists and other specialists. However, intense competition from 10-15 new entrants is fragmenting the market and pressuring margins, with individual players likely gaining only modest revenue contributions.
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