Most traders lose because they bet on events that never happen. A bot that blindly says "No" to every prediction on Polymarket outperforms 84% of active traders who analyze news and make informed decisions. The data is stark: 73% of predictions resolve as "No," meaning the dramatic event everyone worried about simply doesn't occur. This pattern mirrors India's derivatives market, where SEBI research shows 90% of individual F&O traders lose money. The lesson is uncomfortable but clear. Short-term prediction is nearly impossible. Costs accumulate. Confidence becomes expensive. Most of the time, nothing happens, and that's precisely why assuming nothing will happen beats trying to predict what will.
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