Oil markets face critical pressure as West Asia tensions threaten global supply. Kotak Securities analyst projects crude could surge to USD 120 per barrel in the near term, with potential to reach USD 150 if regional conflict extends beyond a month. Current disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have already cut supply by 10-12 million barrels daily, offsetting earlier market surplus and pushing toward deficit conditions. Emergency reserves would cover only about 20 days of lost supply. On MCX, domestic crude prices could rise 20-30 percent from current Rs 8,300 levels to Rs 10,500-11,000. However, if geopolitical tensions ease, the premium could vanish quickly, sending prices down to USD 55-65. China's modest growth outlook and limited stimulus may constrain sustained price pressure despite seasonal demand factors in coming months.
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