Global oil shocks may spare US growth this time.

Global oil shocks may spare US growth this time. SBI Research warns that rising geopolitical tensions and energy price spikes historically trigger US recessions, citing the 1973 oil embargo, 1979 Iran crisis, and 2008 financial collapse as precedents. However, structural shifts suggest different outcomes today. The US has become a net energy exporter and maintains relative energy self-sufficiency, reducing the economic drain from higher oil prices. Household tax refunds provide additional consumption cushion. For India, the outlook remains resilient despite global uncertainty. The economy grew 7.6 percent in FY26 and is projected to expand 6.5 to 6.8 percent in FY27. Strong domestic demand, a stable banking sector, and solid financial conditions insulate India from external shocks.