Crude oil prices expected to remain elevated through 2027 amid Middle East tensions. Asian Development Bank Chief Economist projects benchmark prices averaging USD 96 per barrel in 2026, declining to USD 80 in 2027. The prolonged regional crisis poses significant risks to India's economy, with ADB estimating a 0.6 percentage point reduction in GDP growth for FY27 to 6.3%. India faces sharper inflationary pressure than broader Asia-Pacific due to heavy reliance on imported oil and gas, with inflation projected to spike from current levels to 6.9 percent. Additional concerns include El Niño weather disruptions and rising fertilizer costs threatening food production and supply chains. India's critical role in global rice trade means domestic output disruptions could ripple across international markets.
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