Crude oil prices surge 16% in 2026 , creating a tale of two sectors. Oil marketing companies face margin compression as Brent crude climbs to $82.3 per barrel, with every dollar increase slashing OMC margins by 55 paise per litre and dragging down consolidated Ebitda by 7-9%. Integrated margins for IOCL, HPCL, and BPCL are expected to decline by $3-4 per barrel. LPG under-recoveries have doubled to 69 rupees per cylinder, further pressuring profits. Conversely, upstream players ONGC and Oil India stand to benefit significantly, with earnings potentially rising 1.5-2% for every dollar increase in crude prices. The windfall tax and subsidy policies will ultimately determine the actual gains for upstream companies in coming quarters.