RBI revises FY27 economic assumptions upward. The Reserve Bank of India has increased its crude oil price baseline to USD 85 per barrel for FY27, up from USD 70 in H2FY26, reflecting recent geopolitical tensions that pushed prices above USD 100 in March 2026. Simultaneously, the RBI projects the rupee will depreciate to 94 against the US dollar during FY27, compared to 88 in H2FY26. The Indian currency has already experienced significant pressure, posting its worst annual decline in 14 years with a 9.88 percent depreciation in FY26. These revised assumptions underscore mounting external pressures on India's economy, including persistent foreign fund outflows, elevated energy costs, and global dollar strength that continue to weigh on the rupee's stability.
