Global economy faces stagflation risks as Middle East conflict impacts growth and inflation. Purchasing manager indexes from major economies including Germany, France, eurozone, and UK are expected to show deterioration this week, signaling potential economic slowdown combined with rising prices. The International Monetary Fund warned policymakers of near-recession risks, with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva noting that economic damage is already embedded regardless of ceasefire developments. Central banks including the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve will analyze new survey data to guide interest rate decisions, though officials acknowledge significant uncertainty ahead. Retail sales data from the US and additional inflation reports from Canada, UK, and South Africa will provide crucial insights into the war's economic fallout.
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