Market Fundamental Analysis for July 1, 2026: GBPUSD
Events to watch today:
15:15 EET. USD — ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
17:00 EET. USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI
GBPUSD:
Sterling starts July under pressure as UK data point to weaker domestic demand. GDP grew by 0.6% in Q1, but household disposable income fell and April data indicated slower momentum.
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The Bank of England kept rates at 3.75% in June. Softer inflation reduces the need for further tightening, while political changes add uncertainty to the fiscal outlook.
Higher US Treasury yields and stronger Federal Reserve rate expectations continue to support the US dollar. The base case therefore favours further downside in GBPUSD.
Trading idea: SELL 1.3250, SL 1.3280, TP 1.3160
