Market Fundamental Analysis for June 29, 2026 EURUSD
The ECB’s 25-basis-point rate increase has offered limited support to the euro. It warned that the energy shock is raising inflation risks and cut its 2026 euro area growth forecast to 0.8%. Weak activity and falling real incomes limit demand for European assets
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The US dollar is supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep policy restrictive for longer. In June, the Committee kept its 3.50%–3.75% target range, citing resilient activity and inflation above target. Strong US labour data could reinforce this view
The ECB’s move reflects inflation concerns rather than stronger euro area growth. As energy and growth uncertainty persists, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside
Trading idea: SELL 1.1390, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1330
