The oil market is increasingly shaped by the struggle between two opposing factors. On one hand, the temporary easing of restrictions on Iranian oil operations and the partial restoration of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are reducing concerns about supply shortages. On the other hand, a full recovery of supply will take time, and global logistics are still far from normal.
As a result, oil prices and energy stocks are reacting not only to current supply volumes but also to market expectations. If tankers continue returning to regular routes, downward pressure on oil prices may intensify. However, new disruptions or a deterioration of the regional situation could quickly restore the risk premium.
